Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu’s arrest is the latest in President Erdoğan’s offense on the opposition. After more than two decades in power, Erdoğan remains determined on sidelining challengers, yet Turkey is still distinct from the likes of Putin’s Russia—for now. Three key factors set it apart: a defiant opposition, economic fragility, and uncertain loyalties of the coercive forces absent electoral legitimacy. 

Make no mistake: President Erdoğan is at politically vulnerable point. His approval is plummeting, with polls showing a steep decline and growing public discontent. Mass protests have erupted in response to the trial against Mayor İmamoğlu, signaling the public’s refusal to accept the tightening grip. In the 2024 local elections, his AKP came second to the centre-left CHP with a mere 35% of the vote —a historic blow. The opposition has dealt him major defeats, winning key cities like Istanbul and Ankara, mostly with over 50% of the vote share. These results signal a decisive rejection of his rule in Turkey’s economic and political hubs. Despite his party’s grip on media and state resources, Turkish elections remain competitive, and voters continue to challenge his authority.

Turkey’s lack of natural-resource economy makes it reliant on foreign capital. President Erdoğan’s unorthodox economic policies have long fueled inflation and a currency crisis, eroding investor confidence. Unlike Russia’s oil- and gas- funded regime, Turkey’s economy remains vulnerable. In a desperate attempt to stabilize the lira, the Turkish Central Bank reportedly sold $26 billion in three days, exposing the government’s struggle to maintain control. Political instability has fueled a surge in dollarization, eroding the hard-earned confidence in the lira that was built under Minister Şimşek. The future of Şimşek’s economic program is now in limbo.

President Erdoğan’s party walks on thin ice, as their style of politics depends on electoral legitimacy. Without it, the extent to which the coercive apparatus will be willing to suppress dissent remains uncertain. The offense on opponents, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, reveals the reliance on the same handful of loyalist bureaucrats, used repeatedly for questionable trials and investigations. This does not signal strength, but desperation.

President Erdoğan’s grip on power is weakening, but his party clings to an illusion of strength. The recent theatrics of control may well be an attempt to mask the cracks forming beneath them. With the current political momentum in favor of the opposition, the question is no longer whether Turkey will move beyond this government, but when and how.